Whenever the Conservatives are not falling out over Europe in the form of the European Union, they are falling out over human rights. Merge these two traditional battlegrounds together, and you are left with the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). And after the Prime Minster’s sudden announcement of a snap General Election, it should come as no surprise that the ongoing ECHR issue will inevitably feature in some form.
Yes, the Conservatives have a habit of expressing their desire to repeal the Human Rights Act 1998, the legislation which enshrines the Convention into domestic law. They also have a fondness for expressing their deep-rooted hope to see the creation of a British Bill of Rights in place of the 1998 Act. The more daring and extreme will speak too of the UK withdrawing from the European Convention itself.
I have written about all this before, but this once again is of topical relevance since the announcement we shall return to the polls on the 8th June.
Since becoming Prime Minister – back when she kept vowing she would never call an early election – it was reported Mrs May planned to fight the 2020 General Election on a platform of leaving the ECHR. Apparently, the Prime Minister sought to “lift and shift” rights protections so people in the UK could only seek rights protections in UK courts, not the ECtHR.
It was also reported Mrs May “has decided that she cannot start that fight with the prospect of negotiating Britain’s exit from the European Union set to dominate Parliament over the next few years.” Therefore, Conservative plans to replace the 1998 Act with a British Bill of Rights were seemingly put on hold, albeit temporarily, because of the Brexit result. And recall that during her leadership bid, Mrs May said pulling out of the ECHR was not something she could pursue in this Parliamentary mandate because of the Conservative’s slim majority.
So the question becomes this: if Mrs May intended to fight the 2020 General Election on a manifesto pledge to see the withdrawal of the UK from the ECHR, might it feature now, during this snap campaign? Moreover, if Mrs May is calling this early election on the basis of her slim majority and the need for a greater mandate, should she acquire a comfortable majority, would she venture forth and take the UK out of the ECHR?
It would appear I am not the only one querying what might unfold. Theresa May has apparently been urged to commit to staying in the ECHR in the next Parliamentary term, dude to concerns she could try to get a mandate at the election for taking the UK out of the treaty after Brexit. And this comes from within her own party, as some in the liberal wing of the party (yes, such a wing apparently exists in the Conservative party) are worried that Mrs May will be tempted to include leaving the convention in her election manifesto.
After all, her predecessor David Cameron at the last election submitted plans for a British Bill of Rights to restore some sovereignty over human rights whilst remaining within the ECHR. Thus Mrs May now finds herself having to decide whether to proceed with those plans after Brexit, or go even further and withdraw the UK . This was advocated last year by Nick Timothy, her co-chief of staff – who just happens to be heavily involved in drafting the Conservative’s manifesto.
I wrote only a few months ago:
Yet, it was suggested the drafting and implementation of a British Bill of Rights is now unlikely to happen at all due to concerns that Mrs May would face a rebellion by Conservative MPs. And as previously outlined, all it would take is a small band of backbench Conservative rebels to cause trouble, given Mrs May’s slim majority in the Commons.
Of course, the Prime Minister could call for a snap election in an attempt to boost her majority. Whilst this is unlikely, it is not completely so: British Labour is struggling in the polls, and as the UK Supreme Court recently ruled the UK Parliament must be granted a vote on Art 50, Mrs May might think it better to increase her majority now for an easier life in the long run.
At this point, after so many ups and downs in politics and a never-ending stream of elections, I will say this: never say never. I would not be surprised if Mrs May, intent on pursuing a hard Brexit, might go further and not only oversee the UK withdrawing from the EU, but perhaps the ECHR as well.